Morgan Stanley Predicts the S&P 500 Will End at 3000

摩根士丹利预计标普500指数明年将跌至3000点

—next year. That’s roughly 5% below where stocks were before the holiday. That would be a big change—the S&P 500 has gained more than 25% this year. But strategists at Morgan Stanley are forecasting flat corporate profits next year, and that, they predict, will lead to more investor caution.

这一水平比假日前的股市水平低了约5％。这将是一个巨大的波动浮动——标普500指数今年以来已经上涨了25％以上。但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略师们预计明年该指数成分股公司的利润将持平，他们因此预计这将导致更多的投资者保持谨慎。

And that’s even before they account for how the market could be affected by the 2020 presidential election. Morgan Stanley says it’s too early to make any call on that.

而且这一预期还没有包括2020年总统大选对股市的影响。摩根士丹利称，现在就大选做任何预测还为时尚早。

But not all banks have such a bearish view. The average Wall Street estimate expects corporate earnings to grow by 10% next year. And Goldman Sachs thinks stocks will rise 5%, and maybe more if the U.S. government is still divided after the election.

但是并非所有投行都持悲观态度。华尔街的平均预期是明年成分股公司的利润将增长10％。高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为明年股市将上涨5％，如果美国政府在大选后仍处于分裂状态，那么股市的涨幅可能还会更大。

JPMorgan Chase Predicts a 2.05% 10-year Treasury Yield

摩根大通预计到2020年底10年期美国国债收益率为2.05％

—at the end of 2020. That’s a moderate increase from where it is now. Treasury yields fell a lot this year, in large part because the Federal Reserve cut rates three times. JPMorgan is forecasting that next year, the Fed will cut interest rates just once more.

这一水平和目前水平相比略高，在很大程度上是因为美联储(Federal Reserve)的三次降息行动。摩根大通预计，明年美联储将再次降息。

In case you’re wondering why we’re talking about Treasury yields, it’s because they matter. A lot. Treasuries are the linchpin for the entire global financial system. Borrowing costs for companies—and often for people—change along with those Treasury yields.

如果你想知道为什么我们要谈论美国国债收益率，那是因为它们很重要。实际上非常重要。美国国债是整个全球金融系统的关键部分。企业（通常也包括个人）的借款成本随着美国国债收益率的变化而变化。

So rising yields mean it will be slightly more expensive to borrow next year. But 2% is still pretty cheap, historically.

因此，收益率上升意味着明年的借款成本会稍高一些。但从历史水平来看，2％的收益率水平依然相对较低。

Lululemon is Expected to Report a Profit of 93 Cents a Share

预计Lululemon每股收益为93美分

—in its third-quarter earnings on Thursday. That would be a pretty big increase from last year.

该公司将于周四（12月5日）公布第三季度财报。和去年相比这将是一个很大的增幅。

That’s particularly bullish if you consider how the broader sector has been struggling. Retail stocks in the S&P 500 are down almost 3% over the past 12 months. But investors expect Lululemon (LULU) to be just fine, since it has kept up with changing consumer tastes. Last week the stock reached a new record high.

如果考虑到整个零售行业的困境，那么这一预期就更显向好了。在过去的12个月中，标普500指数零售股下跌了近3％。但投资者预计Lululemon (LULU)能有较好表现，因为该公司能够适应不断变化的消费者口味。该股上周创下了纪录新高。

翻译 | Anqi

版权声明：

《巴伦》(barronschina) 原创文章，未经许可，不得转载。英文版见2019年11月29日报道“$100 to Preorder Tesla’s Cybertruck, and Two More Numbers to Know”。

（本文内容仅供参考，投资建议不代表《巴伦》倾向；市场有风险，投资须谨慎。）