Real U.S. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, to Grow 1.9% in 2020

2020年美国实际GDP或增长1.9％

—according to 10 experts. It would be the slowest pace of economic expansion in several years.

这是10位专家给出的预期。1.9%将是几年来最慢的经济扩张速度。

The prediction came from a recent Barron’s survey of market strategists—we asked them about their outlooks for the coming year. And the consensus was for a more muted 2020 than 2019 has been.

该预测来自《巴伦》近日对一些市场策略师的调查——我们向他们询问了来年的前景。策略师们的共识是2020年比2019年更加平淡。

On the economic front, that means slower growth—but still growth. Our panel sees the consumer remaining the driving force of the economy in 2020. Unemployment is at half-century lows, and wages are growing faster than inflation.

在经济方面，这意味着增速放缓，但仍然在增长。策略师们认为，消费者仍将是2020年经济的驱动力。目前失业率处于半个世纪低点，工资的增长速度快于通胀。

That means consumers’ spending power is increasing—and that’s good news for the economy, since consumer spending accounts for most of it.

这意味着消费者的消费能力正在增强，这对经济来说是个好消息，因为消费者支出要占到GDP的一大部分。

Earnings For the S&P 500 Will Grow 6% in 2020

2020年标准普尔500指数成分股利润或增长6％

—according to the same panel of experts . It’s the basis for their call that the index itself will rise about 4% next year, after a bit of multiple contraction.

这也是上述策略师做的预期。根据6%计算，他们预计标准普尔500指数的市盈率在略有下降后明年将上涨4％左右。

Add a roughly 2% dividend yield, and stocks could return about 6% next year. Not stupendous, but not too shabby either.

加上大约2％的股息收益率，明年该指数的回报率可能为6％。不算太高，但也不算太低。

It could be a bumpy road ahead, however. Several strategists say that headlines on trade, the economy, or the presidential election could push the market higher or lower for extended periods.

但是，来年股市走势可能较为坎坷。几位策略师表示，有关贸易、经济或总统大选的新闻可能会在较长时间里影响股市上涨或下跌。

The S&P 500’s Price-to-Earnings Multiple is 19

标准普尔500指数的市盈率为19倍

It’s a measure of how much investors must pay for each dollar of earnings. Corporate earnings growth has been slow in 2019. So stocks getting more expensive is what has fueled the index’s big rise in 2019.

市盈率是衡量投资者在购买股票时为每1美元公司利润支付多少前的一种方法。2019年公司利润增长缓慢，因此，推动该指数2019年大幅上涨的原因是因为股票更加昂贵了。

Why have stocks become so pricey? The Federal Reserve and other central banks are responsible. They lowered interest rates in 2019, which means higher stock valuations. That’s because it makes future earnings worth more. And dividend-paying companies see greater demand from yield-seeking investors.

原因何在？这和美联储(Fed)以及其他央行的政策有关。2019年央行调低了利率，这意味着股票估值上升，原因是降息后股票未来的收益会上升。寻求收益的投资者对派息股的需求升温。

With stocks already expensive, our panel doesn’t count on a higher price-to-earnings multiple boosting stocks in 2020.

由于股市估值已经较高，策略师们因此不认为2020年股市会继续由高市盈率推动。

翻译 | Anqi

版权声明：

《巴伦》(barronschina) 原创文章，未经许可，不得转载。英文版见2019年12月30日报道“6% in Expected 2020 GDP Growth, and Two More Numbers to Know”。

（本文内容仅供参考，投资建议不代表《巴伦》倾向；市场有风险，投资须谨慎。）